Political and industrial economy of low carbon hydrogen for large-scale industries in ASEAN

We study how ASEAN member states and companies can accelerate the decarbonization of industrial hydrogen. We examine the political and industrial economy of transitioning to blue and green hydrogen for large-scale industries in selected ASEAN countries. We argue that the successful decarbonization of hydrogen production in ASEAN industries depends on aligning the interests and incentivizing multiple stakeholders. We contribute to the literature by identifying and analyzing the potential winners and losers of future decarbonization of industrial hydrogen in the region, and their power to influence the course of the transition. We propose a sequential hydrogen roadmap, with ASEAN member states providing regulatory, infrastructure and state-owned company support as well as tailored policy strategies for the potential winners and losers. • Examines political economy barriers to blue and green hydrogen in ASEAN. • Identifies winners and losers shaping support and resistance to transition. • Links industrial policy tools to stakeholder incentives and power dynamics. • Proposes a sequential grey–blue–green hydrogen transition roadmap. • Derives policy strategies aligning state, state-owned enterprises, and private sector interests.