Sentencing with or without guidelines: a cross-jurisdictional analysis of England & Wales and Hong Kong

Abstract Prevailing wisdom suggests that sentencing guidelines may constrain judicial discretion and hinder individualised justice; however, our cross-jurisdictional analysis indicates that they might actually better protect these principles than unrestricted discretion. Utilising two large-scale datasets from England and Wales, and Hong Kong, we examine sentences for burglary, assault, and drug trafficking. The results reveal a paradox: guidelines in England and Wales contributed to greater consistency in retributive proportionality and enhanced consideration of personal mitigating factors. Conversely, Hong Kong’s discretionary approach resulted in inconsistent application of sentencing considerations and personal mitigating factors. Both systems prioritised procedural efficiency, with guilty pleas markedly reducing sentences across various offences. These findings challenge the ‘bias effect’ critique by demonstrating that well-structured guidelines can safeguard individualised justice better than unfettered discretion can. The study offers robust empirical evidence for institutional design in criminal justice systems.