The Global Strategic Chain Reactions of the U.S.–Iran War: East Asia as the Next Plausible Capability-Revealing Theater

This working paper examines the U.S.–Iran war as more than a self-contained Middle Eastern crisis. It argues that the broader significance of the conflict lies in its potential to generate cross-regional strategic chain reactions by consuming scarce U.S. assets, narrowing alliance decision space, and reshaping how regional actors interpret American availability, resolve, and prioritization. The paper identifies East Asia as the most plausible next theater for a capability-revealing confrontation, most likely through a prolonged coercive contest centered on Taiwan rather than immediate all-out war. Drawing on qualitative synthesis of open-source materials, the paper analyzes how regional wars can reveal the operating limits of military power, alliance cohesion, and strategic endurance under multi-theater pressure. It also speaks to AI-mediated conflict conditions insofar as contemporary ISR networks, missile-defense architectures, and operational tempo are increasingly shaped by AI-enabled sensing, processing, and decision-support systems.