Social Analysis Modeling with System Dynamics Approach in a Uruguayan Case of Green Hydrogen Production

The deployment of green hydrogen production is increasingly considered a strategic opportunity for energy-exporting countries. However, beyond technological and environmental aspects, large-scale industrial projects may generate complex and uncertain social and economic impacts at the regional level. This study investigates the potential social implications of introducing a green hydrogen production plant in the Department of Paysandú, Uruguay, using a System Dynamics modeling approach. It proposes an initial system model designed to establish a foundational Modeling and Simulation framework. The model explicitly represents feedback mechanisms linking public finance, education, labor competencies, productivity, and social behavior impact, allowing the exploration of long-term socio-economic trajectories under alternative institutional and policy conditions. It is used as an exploratory decision-support tool to assess conditional pathways, trade-offs, and risks. Results indicate that positive social outcomes, such as human capital accumulation and regional income growth, are possible but not automatic; they depend critically on governance capacity, fiscal sustainability, labor market coordination, and social acceptance, and may be attenuated or delayed under adverse scenarios. While this framework provides a strategic engineering lens on the social dimension, it represents a first step toward a comprehensive decision-making tool. The study analyzes a complex system by integrating energy, production, economic, social, and environmental aspects from strategic engineering lens and contributes to the literature by integrating social dimension and institutional constraints into a Modeling and Simulation framework applied to green hydrogen industrialization, offering insights into policy design under uncertainty in emerging energy-export contexts.