Background: Low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) affects young women.The standard "8-day methotrexate" (MTX) regimen achieves a 70-80% cure rate as first-line treatment, but resistance may require second-line chemotherapy, delaying fertility and causing toxicity.The TROPHAMET single-arm phase I/II trial showed that combining avelumab (AVE) with MTX achieved a 96.2% success rate.Methods: To compare these first-line strategies before a potential phase III trial, we designed an external control comparison in the target trial framework using data from GTN patients with a FIGO (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics) score 6 treated between 2020 and 2025 and prospectively registered to the French Reference Center for Trophoblastic Diseases (FRCTD).The main outcome was serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) normalization allowing treatment discontinuation.G-computation was performed to compare results between MTX + AVE and MTX alone, using the FIGO score as the main confounding factor.The 95% confidence intervals (CI) for risk ratio and risk difference estimates were constructed using a percentile-based bootstrap CI with 10,000 bootstrap samples.Several sensitivity analyses were performed.Results: Among the 276 eligible patients in the FRCTD database (mean age, 35 years, 268 post molar GTN 97%, 44 FIGO score 5-6 16%, 104 FIGO stage III 38%), 29 received the experimental treatment MTX + AVE (i.e., the single-arm group) and 247 received the control treatment MTX (i.e., the external control group).In the patients treated with MTX + AVE, the observed probability of hCG normalization was 96.6%.Risk ratio was 1.21 (95%CI, 1.06 to 1.39) and risk difference was 0.17 (95%CI, 0.05 to 0.28).Sensitivity analyses showed consistent results. Conclusions:This study shows that, for low-risk GTN patients, a first-line treatment of MTX+AVE leads to a higher rate of hCG normalization than MTX alone.These findings reinforce the suggestions of the TROPHAMET clinical trial and encourage the conduct of a phase III trial.
Bolze et al. (Sun,) studied this question.