Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd (LTHL) – valuing asset-light shift

Learning outcomes After completion of this case, students will be able to accomplish the following objectives:TO1 Understand India’s hospitality sector, its recent trends and how it is classified for analysis and investment purposes.TO2 Learn about management contracts as a strategic approach to expand business operations and analyse the nature of the industry using Michael Porter’s Five Forces framework.TO3 Discuss the application of the Piotroski score in analysing the financial health of the company.TO4 Forecast free cash flows to equity and determine the fair value of equity using the discounted cash flow method.TO5 Perform a sensitivity analysis by identifying key variables that impact the fair value of equity. Case overview/synopsis In December 2023, clients of Shyam Sundar, a Securities and Exchange Board of India-registered equity research analyst, were enquiring about investments in Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd (LTHL), India’s third-largest hospitality company. The Indian hospitality industry was emerging from the shadows of the pandemic, and LTHL was on a recovery path – both operationally and financially. The company had incurred losses during the pandemic. The share price had increased steadily from ₹ 60 to ₹ 117 over the years. The company’s board had decided to follow an asset-light approach to expand its business operations. They chose management contracts 1 as the strategic approach. The clients wanted an in-depth analysis to decide whether to make an investment in LTHL or not. The detailed analysis was paramount as most of his clients were planning to make a maiden investment in the hospitality industry. Shyam Sundar was entrusted with the task of analysing the company, valuing its equity and commenting on the hospitality industry before submitting his recommendations to his clientele. Complexity academic level This case is suitable for courses on valuation, strategic financial management, strategic management, investment analysis and portfolio management at the undergraduate and MBA levels. The case can also be used for training programs on valuation for middle and senior professionals. The case is to be discussed in a classroom and can also be used while delivering online sessions. Supplementary material Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.