Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) occur when the moraine dam of a glacial lake fails, releasing large volumes of water downstream with little or no forewarning. The Indus river basin in Himalaya is increasingly threatened by GLOFs due to accelerated glacial melt caused by climate change. This study aims to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes throughout the basin and to simulate possible GLOF situations to evaluate downstream risk. This research uses hydrodynamic modelling and high-resolution remote sensing data to evaluate the hazard potential of glacier lakes. The evaluation includes 100%, 75%, and 50% of moraine failure breach scenarios across diverse meteorological circumstances to replicate maximum releases and its downstream impacts. The study conforms to recognized risk assessment frameworks, offering insights into the dynamics of glacier lakes amid climate change. The findings highlight the imperative for continuous monitoring and aggressive interventions to combat the escalating danger of GLOFs, hence enhancing disaster preparedness and risk mitigation methods for downstream communities in the Indus Basin. Findings suggests Nubra sub-basins are under considerable GLOF risk. GLOFs simulations indicate that projected peak discharges may vary from 400 m3/s to exceeding 500 m3/s in extreme circumstances, with flood waves potentially arriving in downstream locales such as Sumur village within hours. A Glacial Lake has been evaluated to potentially release up to 500 m3/s in the event of total moraine failure and piping failure, affecting regions like Sumur village and nearby area within roughly hours. The potential outflow from this lake leads to serious risks to people and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for early warning systems and disaster management in this area.
Shukla et al. (Thu,) studied this question.