Analysis and development of sustainability thresholds

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of sustainability thresholds for 21 indicators identified within the SUSTRACK framework as relevant to monitoring the EU’s transition toward a circular bioeconomy. It analyses how these indicators relate to the planetary boundaries (PBs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thereby linking the measurement of bioeconomy performance to both ecological limits and social objectives. The analysis demonstrates that while a wide range of indicators is available to track bioeconomic activities, only a few are explicitly designed to reflect ecological thresholds or early warning functions. Defining scientifically robust, absolute thresholds for many of these indicators remains beyond current feasibility, given the complexity of the Earth system and the evolving state of scientific knowledge. Fixed threshold values are also often neither meaningful nor conducive to informed decision-making, as they obscure systemic interdependencies, regional variations, and shifting pressures on planetary systems. Consequently, the report adopts policy-based performance thresholds, drawing from existing EU legislative and strategic frameworks, such as the Effort Sharing Regulation, the LULUCF Regulation, the Waste Framework Directive, and the Energy Efficiency Directive, where available. These serve as actionable and credible proxies for sustainability monitoring. By anchoring indicator assessment in established policy targets, the report ensures consistency with EU governance structures while maintaining alignment with the overarching ambition of remaining within planetary boundaries. Each of the 21 indicators was examined in relation to the planetary boundaries it directly or indirectly influences and the SDGs it supports. The planetary boundaries framework provided the conceptual foundation for this analysis. Current scientific evidence indicates that seven of the nine boundaries have already been transgressed, while only stratospheric ozone depletion and atmospheric aerosol loading remain within the safe operating space. The indicators examined in this report are most strongly associated with these already exceeded boundaries, underscoring the need for targeted monitoring and ambitious performance thresholds in these domains. Overall, the report establishes a structured basis for monitoring the sustainability performance of the EU circular bioeconomy through policy-aligned thresholds, providing an analytical bridge between statistical indicators and sustainability frameworks.