The Long-Term Effects of Structural Discrimination on Public Safety: The 1930s Redlining Maps

Enduring disinvestment can lead to different socioeconomic trajectories and the clustering of distressed, blighted urban areas. Do these differential trajectories explain present-day public safety? This study examines the long-term public safety impacts of the residential security maps, the once-legal 1930s racially discriminatory maps used to determine the real estate market’s “risk” of lower property values, limiting residential loans to racial-minority individuals. This research collects incident-level data from 48 police departments and compares areas near different color-grade boundaries around a small bandwidth in a spatial regression discontinuity design. Neighborhoods differed along sociodemographic dimensions before the introduction of redlining maps. There are significant increases in present-day violent, property, low-level, and weapon-related offenses in redlined areas, even after controlling for historical differences. There is some evidence that present-day law enforcement, as measured by arrests, police stops, and calls for service, was also affected. Redlining maps may have exacerbated neighborhood disadvantages, potentially preventing safer neighborhoods in the long run, although their impact may be smaller than previously suggested.