Abstract JWST is transforming our ability to characterize small exoplanets, from sub-Neptunes to rocky worlds. A key open question is whether highly irradiated rocky planets can retain atmospheres or are stripped bare by stellar irradiation—a boundary that remains to be mapped observationally. Here we present the first JWST secondary eclipse observations of the rocky exoplanet GJ 3473 b, obtained with MIRI F1500W photometry. Using four visits, we confidently detect the eclipse at an average depth of 186 ± 45 ppm, somewhat lower than expected for a blackbody. We test a wide range of data reduction and analysis assumptions and provide new insights into MIRI detector settling behavior that will benefit future observations. We model a suite of airless surfaces with varied compositions, textures, and degrees of space weathering, as well as idealized atmospheric scenarios including the possibility of atmospheric collapse. Both atmospheric and bare-rock interpretations remain consistent with the data, but we exclude thick CO 2 atmospheres, placing a 95% credible upper limit of 1.2–6.5 bar on the surface pressure. We also find tentative evidence for visit-to-visit variability in eclipse depth (33–371 ppm), though additional data are required to confirm this. Our results highlight the challenges and intrinsic degeneracies in interpreting MIRI F1500W eclipse measurements of rocky exoplanets, indicating that such observations alone may not uniquely distinguish between bare-rock and atmospheric scenarios. Future spectroscopic or phase-curve observations will be required to determine whether or not GJ 3473 b hosts a substantial atmosphere.
Holmberg et al. (Fri,) studied this question.