Understanding change in times of crises: US–China competition and the prospects for peaceful change

Abstract This essay explores the nature, causes, and prospects of three types of international order transitions: systemic, institutional, and systems transitions. It argues that peaceful change remains possible despite growing turbulence in the context of US–China competition. Historically, systemic transitions, marked by shifts in the distribution of power among great powers, were often driven by crises and wars. Today, however, nuclear deterrence, defensive military technologies, and the increasing agency of non-great powers create greater space for nonviolent systemic transitions. At the institutional level, states are pursuing strategies such as soft balancing, economic statecraft, and informal multilateralism to manage great power competition and shape rules, norms, and practices, fostering the possibility of peaceful institutional transitions in global governance. Looking further ahead, the rise of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies may diffuse power beyond states, empowering corporations, NGOs, and other non-state actors. This could drive a more profound systems transition, fundamentally altering the structure and actors of the international order itself. While risks of technological overreach and geopolitical conflicts persist, this essay concludes that the trend toward low-violence great power rivalry, the growing agency of non-great powers, and the diffusion of critical technologies can collectively steer the international system toward more peaceful transitions in the context of US–China competition than in previous eras.