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To our knowledge, this is one of the only studies to analyze the future workload of general surgery. We project a dramatic increase in workload in the next 20 years, largely as a result of the aging US population. Our baseline assumptions are relatively conservative, so this forecast may be an underestimation. Hence, the challenge for general surgeons is to develop strategies to address this problem while maintaining quality of care for our patients.
Jerome H. Liu (Thu,) studied this question.