Early Stage Forest Fire Detection from Himawari-8 AHI Images Using a Modified MOD14 Algorithm Combined with Machine Learning

The early detection and rapid extinguishing of forest fires are effective in reducing their spread. Based on the MODIS Thermal Anomaly (MOD14) algorithm, we propose an early stage fire detection method from low-spatial-resolution but high-temporal-resolution images, observed by the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8. In order to not miss early stage forest fire pixels with low temperature, we omit the potential fire pixel detection from the MOD14 algorithm and parameterize four contextual conditions included in the MOD14 algorithm as features. The proposed method detects fire pixels from forest areas using a random forest classifier taking these contextual parameters, nine AHI band values, solar zenith angle, and five meteorological values as inputs. To evaluate the proposed method, we trained the random forest classifier using an early stage forest fire data set generated by a time-reversal approach with MOD14 products and time-series AHI images in Australia. The results demonstrate that the proposed method with all parameters can detect fire pixels with about 90% precision and recall, and that the contribution of contextual parameters is particularly significant in the random forest classifier. The proposed method is applicable to other geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite sensors, and it is expected to be used as an effective method for forest fire detection.