Representation of the Equatorial Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in EOF Phase Space

A 35-year record of monthly mean zonal wind data for the equatorial stratosphere is represented in terms of a vector (radius and phase angle) in a two-dimensional phase space defined by the normalized expansion coefficients of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) of the vertical structure. The tip of the vector completes one nearly circular loop during each cycle of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Hence, its position and rate of progress along the orbit of the point provide a measure of the instantaneous amplitude and rate of phase progression of the QBO. Although the phase of the QBO bears little if any relation to calendar month, the rate of phase progression is strongly modulated by the first and second harmonics of the annual cycle, with a primary maximum in April/May, in agreement with previous studies based on the descent rates of easterly and westerly regimes. A simple linear prediction model is developed for the rate of phase progression, based on the phase of the QBO and the phase of the annual cycle. The model is capable of hindcasting the phase of the QBO to within a specified degree of accuracy approximately 50% longer than a default scheme based on the mean observed rate of phase progression of the QBO (1 cycle per 28.1 months). If the seasonal dependence is ignored, the prediction equation corresponds to the “circle map,” for which an extensive literature exists in dynamical systems theory.