Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review

It is well known that the day-to-day changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation are not predictable beyond two weeks. The small-scale rainfall patterns associated with the large-scale circulation patterns may not be predictable beyond even a few days. However, the space–time averages of certain atmospheric and oceanic variables are predictable for months to seasons. This chapter gives a pedagogical review of the ideas and the results that have led to our current understanding and the status of the predictability of seasonal climate variations.