Retention of buoyant plastic in a well-mixed estuary due to tides, river discharge and winds

Estuaries can act as plastic retention hotspots, but the hydrodynamic controls on retention are not well understood. This study investigates the retention of river-sourced buoyant plastics in a well-mixed estuary, the Waitematā Estuary, using validated numerical simulations of floats with different tides, winds, and freshwater discharge. The proportion of floats grounded on the shore in all seven simulations is higher than 60 % and over 90 % in five simulations after ten days. <20 % of the floats leave the estuarine mouth in any of the simulations. An increase of two orders of magnitude in freshwater discharge doubles the likelihood for floats to reach the lower estuary. However, we find increased freshwater discharge doubles the lateral circulation towards the shore and results in similar proportions of grounding (90 %) as the low discharge cases. These findings challenge the conventional view that plastics preferentially enter the open ocean after high river discharge.