The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations

This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade and business cycles using a three-sector intertemporal equilibrium model and a large multicountry database. Results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for nearly one-half of actual GDP variability. The model explains weak correlations between net exports and terms of trade (the Harberger, Laursen, and Metzler effect), and produces large and weakly correlated deviations from purchasing power parity and real interest rate parity. Terms-of-trade shocks cause real appreciations and positive interest differentials, although productivity shocks have opposite effects. The puzzle that welfare gains of international asset trading are negligible is left unresolved. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.