Does the RCOG Risk Assessment Model accurately predict postpartum venous thromboembolism in Chinese women?
The RCOG Risk Assessment Model is effective for predicting postpartum VTE in Chinese women, supporting its use for guiding postpartum thromboprophylaxis in this population.
BACKGROUND Since China has not yet constructed its own risk assessment model (RAM) for pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism (VTE), more and more hospitals use the RCOG RAM for VTE risk prediction. However, the RCOG RAM was established based on Western populations, and its applicability in China is still uncertain. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the validity of the RCOG RAM in predicting postpartum VTE in Chinese maternity. MATERIAL AND METHODS This retrospective case-control study was conducted at the International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital (IPMCHH) from June 2016 to June 2020. The VTE group consisted of 38 women with postpartum VTE. For each VTE patient, 4 women without VTE who gave birth on the same day were randomly selected as the control group (n=152). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy, and validity of the RCOG RAM. Univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to identify other related factors for postpartum VTE. RESULTS Compared with the low-risk group, the risk of VTE was 9.75-fold greater in the intermediate-risk group, and 90.00-fold greater in the high-risk group. The area under curve (AUC) of the model was 0.828 (95% CI: 0.762-0.894), with a score of 2 as its best cut-off value, which exactly matched the criterion recommended by the RCOG guidelines for pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The calibration curves and DCA of the model also showed good accuracy. In addition to the factors included in the RCOG RAM, glucocorticoid therapy during pregnancy (adjusted OR=6.72, 95% CI: 1.56-28.91) and previous use of IUD (adjusted OR=7.11, 95% CI: 1.45-34.93) were associated with increased risk of postpartum VTE. CONCLUSIONS The RCOG RAM was found to be effective in predicting postpartum VTE, and has certain guiding significance for postpartum thromboprophylaxis in China.
Ge et al. (Mon,) studied this question.