How future-proof is Sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa) in a global change context?

In the debate about tree species suited to cope with the ongoing global changes, Sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is frequently discussed as a potentially future-proof tree species for Central Europe. This is mainly due to its current southern distribution range, which climatically corresponds to what is expected for Central Europe in the near future. Present chestnut forests are, however, the result of historic long-term intensive management, which has extended and partially obscured the species’ natural ecological range and autecology. Therefore, knowledge about the competitiveness and suitability of chestnut for future conditions is still poor. Here, we analysed data of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) for Southern Switzerland to compare the survival probability of chestnut to other co-occurring tree species and detect drivers of chestnut mortality under natural dynamics including the Asian Chestnut Gall Wasp (Dryocosmus kuriphilus) using survival models, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox-Proportional Hazards model. Despite the potential longevity of cultivated chestnuts, under natural conditions the survival curves rank the chetsnut among short-lived and light-demanding tree species, especially for individuals smaller than 50 cm diameter at breast height. Moreover, the survival models confirm the pioneer-like characteristics of the chestnut tree such as its low shade tolerance and poor competitiveness in comparison to late-successional species. The mortality probability of chestnut increases when growing under dry conditions and under grazing pressure from goats, while fire disturbances have a positive effect on survival. Severe damage due to repeated D. kuriphilus attacks represents an additional significant factor of increased chestnut mortality risk. Our results suggest that chestnut is not per se a future-proof tree species. Rather, forest managers should be aware that chestnut might not be the best option to face expected rises in summer temperatures and dry periods on xeric site conditions, whereas the species can be considered on good site conditions when regular silvicultural management is provided.