Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex‐ and age‐specific probability of blood donation

If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources.