Spring Freeze Effect on Wheat Yield is Modulated by Winter Temperature Fluctuations: Evidence from Meta‐Analysis and Simulating Experiment

Abstract Increasing climatic variability is projected to affect large‐scale atmospheric circulation, triggers and exacerbates more extreme weather events, including winter warming and more frequent extreme low temperatures in spring. Historical data from 1961–2000 indicate these temperature fluctuations may seriously affect grain yield of winter wheat crops. In this study, a field air temperature control system ( FATC ) was used to simulate the winter warming, spring cold and freezing events in the field experiment in 2010–2011 to explore their impacts on growth and yield of winter wheat. Eight elite wheat varieties released during 1961–2000 were included and four temperature scenarios were applied, including late spring freeze alone, winter warming + late spring freeze, early spring cold + late spring freeze and the normal temperature condition as control. Winter warming combined with late spring freeze significantly decreased tiller survival rate, leaf photosynthetic rate and leaf growth in wheat plants, and reduced the spike number and kernel number per spike, and the final grain yield. In contrast, the wheat plants experienced early spring cold had higher tiller survival rate, leaf photosynthetic capacity and sugar accumulation and improved tolerance to the late spring freeze, resulting in less yield loss, as compared with those without experiencing early spring cold. Both the meta‐analyses and the field experimental data demonstrated that the effects of later spring freeze stress on wheat yield were exacerbated by winter warming but were extenuated by early spring cold events. Therefore, it is important to consider the characteristics of temperature fluctuations during winter to spring for precise evaluation of climate change effects on wheat production.