A Real-World US Study of Recurrence Risks using Combined Clinicopathological Features in HR-Positive, HER2-Negative Early Breast Cancer

Aim: To assess invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) in hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer with combined clinicopathological criteria from monarchE, a phase III study of abemaciclib. Methods: US electronic health records were used to compare outcomes between high-risk (≥4 lymph nodes, or 1-3 lymph nodes and grade 3, tumor ≥5 cm or Ki-67 ≥20%) versus nonhigh-risk groups using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression models. Results: The high-risk group (n = 557) was at higher risk for IDFS and DRFS events than the nonhigh-risk group (n = 3471). IDFS events (hazard ratio: 3.07; 95% CI: 2.45-3.83) and DRFS events (hazard ratio: 3.15; 95% CI: 2.49-3.97) were significantly higher for the high-risk group. Conclusion: Risk of recurrence was three-times greater in the high-risk group, highlighting the need for better therapies.