Using multi-regional input–output models for absolute environmental sustainability assessment of industries

Absolute environmental sustainability assessment (AESA) quantifies whether industry impacts remain within their assigned share of safe operating space (SOS). However, systematic methods for deriving and analysing assigned shares across industries, regions, and time are lacking. Using EXIOBASE 3, this study derives 503,181 assigned shares for 163 industries across 49 regions (from 2002 until 2022) using “economic output” and “emission grandfathering” allocation approaches. Results for the USA and China for selected industries indicate higher average assigned shares for China (up to 112% higher) and with some sectors such as construction exceeding climate change SOS by over 300 times in 2022. In motor vehicle manufacturing, the USA and China use less water than their allocated shares but exceed in climate change by about 20 times. A sensitivity analysis compares the results across alternative MRIO databases (Eora26, GLORIA, OECD-ICIO), accounting frameworks (consumption-based vs. production-based), and final consumption expenditure scopes, and discusses the robustness of sector-level patterns. Python code is provided to extend the analysis across all 7987 sector–region combinations, and challenges in operationalisation beyond sectors to companies and products are discussed.