The Glasgow-Blatchford score optimally predicted rebleeding in patients with antithrombotic-related gastrointestinal bleeding, yielding 92.9% sensitivity and 78.8% specificity at a cutoff of 5.5.
Cohort (n=89)
No
Which prognostic score best predicts rebleeding and mortality in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding receiving antithrombotic therapy?
The Glasgow-Blatchford score, with a cutoff of 5.5, provides excellent sensitivity and specificity for predicting rebleeding in patients on antithrombotic therapy presenting with non-variceal upper GI bleeding.
Background/Objectives: Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) remains a major clinical emergency, particularly among patients receiving antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy, whose use has increased substantially in recent years. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics, endoscopic findings, risk stratification, and outcomes of NVUGIB in patients receiving antithrombotic therapy, and to compare the predictive performance of commonly used prognostic scores. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 89 patients receiving antithrombotic therapy who presented with NVUGIB at Beni-Suef University Hospitals between March 2023 and March 2025. Clinical presentation, laboratory findings, and endoscopic characteristics were recorded. Risk stratification was assessed using Glasgow–Blatchford (GBS), Rockall, Baylor, AIMS65, ABC, and PNED scores. The optimal cut-off values for prediction of rebleeding and mortality were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the Youden index. Area under the curve (AUC) values were reported with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Endoscopy revealed that peptic ulcers were the most common lesion (41/89, 46%), followed by erosive disease (27/89, 30%), with the stomach being the most frequently involved site (76.5%). Rebleeding occurred in 16 patients (18.0%), while mortality was observed in 2 patients (2.2%). The Glasgow–Blatchford score demonstrated the most consistent performance for predicting rebleeding, with an optimal cutoff value of 5.5 (derived using the Youden index), yielding 92.9% sensitivity and 78.8% specificity. For mortality prediction, AIMS65, ABC, and PNED scores showed very high AUC values, although these findings should be interpreted cautiously due to the small number of mortality events (n = 2). No statistically significant difference in rebleeding or mortality was observed between single and dual antithrombotic therapy, although patients receiving dual therapy required longer hospitalization and more transfusion units. Conclusions: In patients with antithrombotic-related GI bleeding, ulcers and erosions predominate, with minimal differences between single and dual therapy outcomes. Concomitant NSAID use trends toward higher mortality. Glasgow–Blatchford score offers optimal performance for both rebleeding and mortality prediction, with a cutoff of 5.5 providing excellent sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (78.8%) for rebleeding risk assessment.
Eid et al. (Mon,) conducted a cohort in Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) (n=89). Prognostic scores (Glasgow-Blatchford, Rockall, Baylor, AIMS65, ABC, PNED) was evaluated on Rebleeding. The Glasgow-Blatchford score optimally predicted rebleeding in patients with antithrombotic-related gastrointestinal bleeding, yielding 92.9% sensitivity and 78.8% specificity at a cutoff of 5.5.