Against the backdrop of multi-source water transfers and increasingly frequent extreme rainfall, short-term deterioration of reservoir inflow water quality has become a key risk to intake safety, treatment operations, and urban water-supply security. Traditional assessments based on static thresholds and annual or seasonal averages often fail to identify high-risk periods at the event scale. Using continuous online monitoring data from 2021 to 2024 for the inflow of Yuqiao Reservoir, Tianjin, China, this study developed a month-specific dynamic-threshold framework and green/yellow/red risk windows and integrated a reach-wise river–reservoir routing scheme; a two-box decay model; and a three-class risk trigger into a unified analytical framework for long-term background characterization, event propagation analysis, source-contribution interpretation, and early-warning evaluation. Results show that the permanganate index (CODMn) exhibits an overall stable-to-declining background with pronounced wet-season pulses, whereas total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) remain at moderate-to-high levels, with yellow/red risk windows clustering markedly in the wet season. In typical red and yellow events, nitrogen contributions from upstream control sections progressively accumulate toward the reservoir inlet along the river–reservoir cascade system, whereas in some events the residual contribution from unmonitored near-inlet inflows becomes dominant. The CODMn-based three-class trigger achieves an overall accuracy of approximately 71.5% and shows comparatively strong identification of yellow-level risk, while remaining conservative for red-level alarms. These findings indicate that coupling month-specific dynamic thresholds with event-scale routing-decay analysis and trigger-based classification can support inflow monitoring, intake-risk early warning, and coordinated operation of key upstream reaches and near-reservoir control zones in water-transfer–reservoir integrated systems.
Wang et al. (Thu,) studied this question.