Probabilistic health risk assessment of exposure to bisphenol A in a Spanish population cohort

Bisphenol A (BPA) is widely used in plastic food contact materials, including epoxy resins and polycarbonate plastics. This study estimated dietary BPA exposure in 616 Spanish participants using age-specific consumption data and compared it with the tolerable daily intake (TDI) of 200 ng/kg bw/day established by the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR). A probabilistic risk assessment was conducted using the Approximate Probabilistic Analysis or APROBA-Plus tool. Immunotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, and increased serum uric acid were identified as critical toxicological endpoints. Two points of departure were derived: BMDL 10 =26 µg/kg bw/day; NOAEL=50 µg/kg bw/day. BPA exposure (median P95, LB-UB) was highest in children (201.7-211.3 794.6-806.0 ng/kg bw/day), followed by adolescents (71.9-76.7 391.4-399.7 ng/kg bw/day) and young adults (34.9-38.8 228.5-231.2 ng/kg bw/day), with over 50% of children exceeding the BfR TDI. Risk assessment suggests that a health risk cannot be excluded for at least a proportion of these highly exposed children. • Probabilistic modelling refined exposure estimates and identified key food sources. • About 50% of the children exceeded the BfR-derived TDI. • Canned tuna was found to be the major contributor to dietary BPA exposure. • Probabilistic risk assessment revealed no risk for the majority of subjects analysed. • A health risk was not negligible at least for parts of the children.