Exploring the diverse trajectories of cropland use change in fragile ecosystems of northern China: Influencing factors and policy implications from Ordos

Much of China's cropland is located in fragile environments, making its rational use and protection essential for mitigating environmental risks and safeguarding food security. However, the diverse trajectories of cropland use change driven by unique natural conditions have not received sufficient attention. Taking Ordos as a case study, this study analyzes continuous land use data from 2010 to 2020 and identifies four cropland trajectories: very stably used, generally stably used, recurrently transitioning, and abandoned. We employ a multi-level regression model to examine the drivers of cropland use change, accounting for parcel- and regional-level factors and their interactions. The results show that: (1) In Ordos, 54% of cropland parcels remained very stably used between 2010 and 2020, while 25% showed general stability with intermittent fallowing. Recurrently transitioning and abandoned parcels accounted for 14% and 7%, respectively. This distribution significantly differs from the patterns observed in plains and mountainous regions. (2) Cropland use trajectories are primarily dictated by parcel-level natural conditions and accessibility, while the impact of regional-level processes is relatively weaker. (3) Interactions between regional and parcel-level factors significantly shape cropland use trajectories. Notably, rural depopulation exacerbates parcel-level constraints, focusing instability risks on cropland with poor conditions. Given the recurrent transitions in cropland use, we suggest replacing rigid regulations with more flexible management in fragile ecosystems. Such flexibility can better promote both sustainable utilization and ecological conservation. • Four distinct cropland use trajectories have been identified by analyzing the continuous land use data in Ordos from 2010 to 2020. • Multilevel logistic regression reveals how regional drivers and parcel-level factors shape local cropland use patterns. • Rural depopulation amplifies instability risks in cropland with poor natural conditions, highlighting a cross-scale interaction. • The stability and abandonment patterns of cropland in ecologically fragile areas of northern China differ significantly from those in plain and mountainous regions. • Flexible, context-specific policies are essential to balance food security with ecological protection.