Understanding the determinants of success at the United States Military Academy (USMA) has been a topic of inquiry for numerous decades. However, until now, no comprehensive meta-analytic review has synthesized findings across studies examining predictors of cadet outcomes. Drawing on 116 effect sizes from 21 independent samples comprising 29,102 cadets from the West Point classes of 1949-2022, artifact-distribution meta-analyses were conducted to correct observed correlations for measurement unreliability and indirect range restriction in predictors, using individual-level corrections where artifact data were available. Our meta-analysis reveals that cognitive predictors are positively and strongly associated with academic performance and positively but more modestly associated with leadership performance. Additionally, the personality trait of conscientiousness emerged as the most robust non-cognitive predictor of leadership performance while also exhibiting moderate associations with both academic and physical outcomes. Grit, a related characteristic, had weaker associations with outcomes. These findings suggest that military organizations may benefit from incorporating conscientiousness-saturated measures into selection systems, providing incremental validity beyond traditional cognitive predictors in forecasting comprehensive candidate success.
Elliott et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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