Severe and unpredictable wind conditions significantly disrupt flight safety, mission planning, and scheduling. Traditional wind forecasting methods rely on low-resolution mesoscale models or resource-intensive instrumentation. This study evaluates the accuracy of 40 m Large-Eddy Simulations (LESs), nested within a mesoscale framework, to better resolve hazardous wind phenomena over GrandSKY, North Dakota, the first large-scale commercial Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) test park in the United States, serving as a hub for UAS innovation and Beyond Visual Line of Sight operations. Using low-altitude airborne observations from Meteodrone flights, satellite data, and ground-based measurements, we assess the model’s accuracy in predicting wind speed and direction during both summer and winter. Results demonstrate that the 40 m LES provides improved predictions of wind gust variability compared to the 1 km forecast, and the impact on flight safety is quantified. The LES also reveals notable discrepancies in UAS flyability predictions, which result in up to a 17% reduction in operational windows during the summer. This study’s novelty lies in using a 40 m resolution LES nested within a 1 km WRF simulation, combined with multi-source observations, to resolve low-altitude turbulence and quantify its impact on UAS operations. A 10–18% correction factor can be applied to TKE (or derived wind variability) in coarser WRF runs to better estimate maximum wind speeds without LES. The findings highlight the potential of high-resolution LES modeling to support reliable UAS operations in weather-sensitive environments, laying the groundwork for broader integration of advanced simulation techniques in national airspace management systems.
Wooton et al. (Thu,) studied this question.