What question did this study set out to answer?

The paper aims to reassess the fiscal multiplier from U.S. defense procurement data spanning 1966–2019.

May 7, 2026Open Access

Reassessing the Cross‐Sectional Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence From U.S. Defense Procurement, 1966–2019

Puntos clave

The paper aims to reassess the fiscal multiplier from U.S. defense procurement data spanning 1966–2019.
Reconstructed and extended dataset from the Defense Contract Action Data System and USAspending.gov
Aggregated contract-level data to capture domestic stimulus spending
Analyzed cross-sectional estimates for validity and stability.
Estimated fiscal multipliers are slightly lower in narrow replications
Increased multipliers observed when including later fiscal episodes
State-level responses showed reasonable boundaries of dispersion, accounting for dynamic persistence.

Resumen

ABSTRACT This paper revisits the empirical analysis of Nakamura and Steinsson (2014). I reconstructed and extended the original dataset to cover the period 1966–2019, harmonizing two major sources of data: the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov. I discuss how to aggregate these contract‐level data to better capture spending more directly tied to domestic stimulus. Estimated multipliers are slightly lower in narrow replications but increase when incorporating later fiscal episodes. I also assess the validity and stability of cross‐sectional estimates. While some heterogeneity exists, dispersion in state‐level responses remains within reasonable boundaries, especially when accounting for dynamic persistence.

Leer artículo completoexternamente

Me gusta

Guardar

Ver artículo completo