An integrated InSAR-machine learning approach for ground deformation rate modeling in arid areas

Land subsidence is an increasing human-induced disaster that not only damages building and transportation structures but also diminishes the water storage capacity of the aquifers. Land subsidence is a very complex phenomenon impacted by various geo-environmental and hydrological factors. Application of the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is becoming a common approach to detect land subsidence rates, though, it suffers from the lack of continuity over the spatial surfaces due to the vegetation decorrelation, coverage alterations (cultivation and non-cultivation seasons), in the agricultural areas, and rough topography. The lack of continuity can, however, be resolved using artificial intelligence. In our case study, while InSAR deformation data only covered ∼ 2% of the plain’s surface, we employed boosted regression trees (BRT) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms to provide a full coverage map of the groundwater-induced land subsidence based on the InSAR analysis. For this, a set of topographical, hydrological, hydrogeological, and anthropogenic factors was selected. The InSAR and input factors’ resolution data were resampled to a 100-by-100 m to match. The implemented models predicted the long-term deformation rate with the acceptable performances of the BRT (RMSE = 3.3 mm/year, MAE = 2.0 mm/year, R2 = 0.985) and the XGB with linear booster (RMSE = 3.5 mm/year, MAE = 2.1 mm/year, R2 = 0.983). Considering the substantial ground deformation in the studied area (from −216 to 49 mm/year), RMSE values of 3.3, and 3.5 mm/year between the InSAR measurement and model predictions show great potential for combined InSAR-machine learning technique for pumping-driven land subsidence studies. Thus, the introduced approach is suggested for other areas being damaged by excessive pumping and agricultural development to produce an accurate full coverage map of subsidence.