Short-Term Effects of Ambient Particles on Cardiovascular and Respiratory Mortality

BACKGROUND: Particulate air pollution is associated with increased mortality. There is a need for European results from multicountry databases concerning cause-specific mortality to obtain more accurate effect estimates. METHODS: We report the estimated effects of ambient particle concentrations (black smoke and particulate matter less than 10 mum PM10) on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, from 29 European cities, within the Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach (APHEA2) project. We applied a 2-stage hierarchical modeling approach assessing city-specific effects first and then overall effects. City characteristics were considered as potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: An increase in PM10 by 10 microg/m (lag 0 + 1) was associated with increases of 0.76% (95% confidence interval = 0.47 to 1.05%) in cardiovascular deaths and 0.58% (0.21 to 0.95%) in respiratory deaths. The same increase in black smoke was associated with increases of 0.62% (0.35 to 0.90%) and 0.84% (0.11 to 1.57%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These effect estimates are appropriate for health impact assessment and standard-setting procedures.