Optimal Aim in Putting: A Decision-Theoretic Model Across the Skill Spectrum

Should a golfer aim at the hole, just past it, or well beyond it? I answer with a decision-theoretic model of straight, level putting. Line and pace errors generate a bivariate resting distribution, capture physics determines whether the ball falls, and a Bellman continuation value prices misses. I calibrate it for tour, scratch, 10-handicap, and 20-handicap golfers. BroadieShin2014 provide a tour-level angular benchmark. Because the moments are aggregate rather than slope- or read-conditioned, I combine green-reading and stroke-direction error into a single lateral dispersion channel. The main aim result is that the expected-strokes optimum is forgiving: at short and medium distances it is nearly the make-rate optimum in expected strokes, while three-putt avoidance becomes a genuinely different objective when miss length dominates. I use the model to value putting skills. At HCP20, tour putting saves 5.7 strokes per round, but 20-handicap putting costs a tour player 6.8; at lower amateur tiers the forward and reverse transfers are nearly symmetric. On straight, level greens, most amateur-to-tour value comes from pace control; line gains concentrate at 3--5 feet and grow with approach quality. The paper quantifies optimal aim first, then uses that model to assess the value of putting skills.