Hydrogen Roadmap 2050: Technical and economic perspectives on hydrogen green blending in the heating sector Northern Netherlands

The Netherlands aims to phase out natural gas by 2050, positioning hydrogen as a cornerstone of the national energy transition. This study examines the technical and economic feasibility of hydrogen blending in the heating sector of the Northern Netherlands, a region-specific case where hydrogen integration is actively pursued as part of a designated Hydrogen Valley strategy under the EU Green Deal. A mixed-method approach is adopted, combining a focused review of the technical challenges of hydrogen blending — including gas metering accuracy, odorization stability, stratification, and appliance performance — with quantitative scenario-based techno-economic modeling using Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast to prior qualitative assessments, six blending scenarios are analyzed under varying renewable capacities and hydrogen allocations for the year 2030, with implications projected toward 2050. Results indicate that while a 20% hydrogen blend is technically feasible, domestic hydrogen supply remains insufficient, requiring explicitly quantified large-scale imports and storage expansion. The analysis further identifies storage capacity and seasonal supply-demand mismatches as binding constraints, alongside technical barriers such as metering errors, odorant fading, and appliance adaptation, which remain critical to safe implementation. The findings underscore that blending can serve as a transitional measure toward a fully hydrogen-based heating system, provided that regulatory standards and infrastructure upgrades are systematically aligned. By linking regional offshore renewable allocation, hydrogen availability, and storage requirements, this integrated analysis contributes to the Hydrogen Roadmap 2050 by moving beyond confirmation of blending feasibility and instead delivering region-specific, quantitative insights that inform infrastructure planning, policy design, and long-term heating decarbonization pathways. • Achieving 2050 phase-out goals requires major hydrogen supply expansion. • Domestic hydrogen production cannot meet 20% blending without large-scale growth. • Large-scale hydrogen imports will be essential for a full heating transition. • Hydrogen blending in existing grids faces technical and regulatory constraints.