Integrated Machine Learning and Health Risk Assessment for Groundwater Nitrate Contamination in Handan City, China

Groundwater nitrate (NO3−) pollution is a critical environmental challenge with direct implications for human health. In this work, we propose a comprehensive analytical framework that integrates multi-model intercomparison, interpretable machine learning techniques, and quantitative health risk evaluation to tackle the pressing groundwater nitrate governance dilemmas in Handan City, a representative urban area in North China. Based on 157 groundwater samples and 17 hydrochemical parameters, comparative analysis of three state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms showed that the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm outperformed all counterparts, delivering the optimal predictive performance (R2 = 0.753, RMSE = 3.67). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified F−, Ca2+, Cl−, K+, total hardness, and Mg2+ as dominant factors influencing groundwater NO3− concentrations, reflecting the combined effects of carbonate dissolution, nitrification, and anthropogenic inputs. Subsequently, we performed a health risk assessment based on the standard methodological framework issued by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and the results indicated that children were the most vulnerable group, with hazard quotient (HQ, a non-carcinogenic risk indicator) values reaching 1.07 in the western mountainous region, exceeding the safety threshold (HQ > 1). These findings clarify the pollution mechanisms and spatial heterogeneity, and provide targeted policy guidance for groundwater protection as well as the safeguarding of public health.