A Data-Driven Model for the Energy and Economic Assessment of Building Renovations

The architectural, engineering, construction, and operation (AECO) sector is one of the main contributors to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, making the renovation of the existing building stock a priority. However, defining effective and economically sustainable interventions remains a challenge, partly due to the variability of building characteristics and the lack of digital tools to support data-driven decision making. This research aims to identify the main factors influencing the energy consumption of buildings by analyzing a large database of building characteristics using machine learning algorithms. Based on the parameters that the analysis shows to have the greatest impact, the average cost of energy retrofitting measures will be used to elaborate a cost–benefit analysis model and the economic payback time for each measure, individually or in combination. The expected result is the creation of a tool that will allow the operator to evaluate the choice of interventions based on the energy efficiency that can be achieved and/or the economic sustainability. The proposed methodology aims to provide a digital approach that is replicable and adaptable to different territorial realities and useful for strategic planning of energy transformation in the building sector.