This brief provides early evidence that supplemental crop insurance adoption may rise sharply in 2026 under partial OBBBA implementation. Because 2026 acreage reporting is incomplete, the analysis uses observed policy counts for commodities in counties with sales closing dates on or before April 15, 2026, combined with historical acres-per-policy ratios, to project insured acreage and adoption. The 2026 subsidy increase to 80 percent for both ECO and SCO appears to have strongly increased policy sales. ECO policies rose from about 231,000 in 2025 to 531,000 in 2026, while SCO policies rose from about 63,000 to 313,000. Applying historical acreage relationships suggests ECO adoption could reach 51.6 percent of eligible acres and SCO adoption 23.3 percent in 2026. Growth is projected to be strongest in major row-crop states and among crops such as corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. The estimates remain preliminary but signal a major expansion in supplemental coverage.
Tsiboe et al. (Thu,) studied this question.