ABSTRACT: Coffee production is the economic primary economic activity of Wenago Wereda in Ethiopia’s Gedeo Zone, but it is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability. This study examines the effects of climatic shifts on coffee production and productivity, integrating meteorological data with farmer perceptions to understand the dynamics on the ground. The study aimed to examine rainfall and temperature trends (1989–2024), analyze their relationship with coffee production, assess their impact on yields, and document farmer perceptions of ecological changes and adaptation strategies. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining time-series analysis of meteorological data (using Mann-Kendall trend tests and multiple regression), a household survey (199 respondents), focus group discussions (44 participants), and key informant interviews. Satellite imagery was used to quantify land use and land cover change between 1990 and 2020. The analysis revealed a significant climatic shift, characterized by a sharp increase in minimum (nighttime) temperature (+2.15°C, p < 0.01) and a decrease in annual rainfall (155 mm, p < 0.01), resulting in increased rainfall variability. These changes correlated strongly with a 24% decline in coffee production (p=0.0011). Regression analysis confirmed temperature as a key negative driver of yields. In addition to climatic impact on yield, land use analysis revealed a 25.3% loss (3,800 ha) of coffee agro forestry area, driven by climate stress, population pressure, and crop substitution. Farmers overwhelmingly (72.8%) perceived climate change as a major threat, citing erratic rainfall and new disease outbreaks as primary impacts. To address these challenges the study recommends promoting climate-smart agriculture such as shade tree management, soil conservation, and drought-resistant coffee varieties. Policy interventions should focus on irrigation infrastructure, market access, and land-use planning to strengthen resilience.”
CHERINET AKLILU (Thu,) studied this question.