Combining click-stream data with NLP tools to better understand MOOC completion

Completion rates for massive open online classes (MOOCs) are notoriously low. Identifying student patterns related to course completion may help to develop interventions that can improve retention and learning outcomes in MOOCs. Previous research predicting MOOC completion has focused on click-stream data, student demographics, and natural language processing (NLP) analyses. However, most of these analyses have not taken full advantage of the multiple types of data available. This study combines click-stream data and NLP approaches to examine if students' on-line activity and the language they produce in the online discussion forum is predictive of successful class completion. We study this analysis in the context of a subsample of 320 students who completed at least one graded assignment and produced at least 50 words in discussion forums, in a MOOC on educational data mining. The findings indicate that a mix of click-stream data and NLP indices can predict with substantial accuracy (78%) whether students complete the MOOC. This predictive power suggests that student interaction data and language data within a MOOC can help us both to understand student retention in MOOCs and to develop automated signals of student success.