Shrinking cities in post-Soviet Russia

The paper is aimed at assessing scale and trends of urban shrinkage in post-Soviet Russia both at national level and by its major regions. Based on the calculation of average annual index of population loss according to population censuses (1989–2021) data, almost half of Russian cities in total have been shrinking for at least one of three intercensal periods. At the same time, in one of three centers the average annual depopulation exceeded 1% at the end of the entire period. In 1989–2002, the number of shrinking cities was not significant (less than a quarter in total), while increasing dramatically in subsequent inter-census periods to over than 1/3 of all urban settlements of the country by 2021. Study of spatial spreading of urban shrinkage phenomenon unveiled that its progress at different stages was mainly contributed either by resource-based cities of the northern and eastern parts of the country, or by urban settlements in old-developed regions, primarily the Non-Chernozyom areas. Absolute majority of all shrinking cities (87%) are minor units with a population under 50,000 inhabitants. Taking into account the general unfavourability of depopulation and the instability and variability of trends, six types of urban shrinkage trajectories with various combinations and alternations of depopulation phases were identified based on the sequence of depopulation phases within each of the three intercensal periods.