Groundwater potential zoning is essential for sustainable water resource management in drought-prone regions. This study aims to delineate groundwater potential zones in the drought-prone Jonk River Basin, part of the Mahanadi River system, where dependence on surface water for domestic, agricultural, and livestock needs necessitates the evaluation of groundwater potential zones as a supplementary resource during periods of water scarcity. To achieve this, multiple groundwater controlling factors, including geomorphology, geology, land use/land cover, rainfall, soil, slope, drainage density, lineament density, and topographic wetness index (TWI), were evaluated. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to assign normalized weights and ranks to these factors and their respective classes, while Weighted Overlay Analysis (WOA) within a GIS environment was used to integrate the thematic layers and generate the groundwater potential zonation map. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual factors on the model output. Model validation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, in which the predicted groundwater potential classes were compared with observed seasonal groundwater level fluctuation data. The model performance was quantified using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), derived from the true positive and false positive rates. The results indicate that very good and good groundwater potential zones occupy only 0.24% and 2.10% of the basin, respectively, whereas moderate, poor, and very poor zones account for 14.46%, 79.70%, and 3.50% respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed slope as the most influential factor, while TWI showed the least influence. The ROC-AUC value of 0.95 demonstrates a very high prediction accuracy of the model. The findings highlight the limited availability of high-potential groundwater zones in the basin, and therefore provide a scientific basis for sustainable groundwater management, targeted extraction, and effective planning in water-scarce regions. • Groundwater potential zoning (GWPZ) is critical for sustainable groundwater management, especially in drought-prone regions like the Jonk river basin (3454.08 km 2 ). • The study integrates multiple factors, including geomorphology, land use, geology, rainfall, soil, slope, and drainage density using geospatial techniques to assess groundwater availability. • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Weighted Overlay Analysis in a GIS environment was employed to develop detailed groundwater potential zones. • High and good groundwater potential zones constitute only 2.34% of the basin, characterized by favourable lithology, low relief, loamy soils, high rainfall, and dense forest cover. • Moderate, poor, and very poor potential zones cover the majority of the basin, indicating widespread groundwater scarcity. • Sensitivity analysis identified slope as the most influential parameter affecting groundwater potential zoning, while TWI had the least effect. • Validation with ten years of seasonal groundwater fluctuation data yielded an AUC value of 0.95, demonstrating very good predictive accuracy of the zonation model. • Although Jonk river is perennial, dry-season flow decreases significantly due to climatic factors and human activities, including upstream dam constructions that reduce downstream discharge and contributes to water scarcity. • The analysis also brings attention to a critical anthropogenic response to groundwater scarcity, which is the practice of exploitation of riverbeds by farmers for groundwater extraction, particularly during the dry season. It offers short-term irrigation relief to them but risks depleting shallow aquifers, disturbing baseflows, and causing long-term hydrological imbalances • The findings highlight the importance of targeted groundwater extraction and recharge interventions to enhance water security in drought-prone sub-basins.
Shiwani et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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