Dayton at 30: Constitutional balance, geopolitical competition and Europe’s security responsibility

Thirty years after the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains formally at peace, yet structurally fragile. The Croatian military’s Operation Storm significantly shifted the military balance on the ground and contributed to the conditions that enabled the Dayton–Paris peace process, which preserved the country’s sovereignty by retaining equality among its three constituent peoples in the constitutional order. However, this balance has been under strain due to incomplete institutional consolidation, recurring disputes caused by centralisation tendencies, demographic asymmetries and renewed geopolitical rivalry. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has reintroduced spheres of influence and strategic destabilisation to Europe’s security environment, elevating the Western Balkans from a peripheral concern to a core security consideration. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s internal constitutional debates, therefore, carry implications beyond domestic governance. This article traces developments from 1995 to the present and argues that constitutional equilibrium, legitimate political representation and credible Euro-Atlantic integration are indispensable, not only for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European future but also for Europe’s wider security stability.