The role of hydrogen in the transition from a petroleum economy to a low-carbon society

A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. The paper focuses on the role of hydrogen in the transition, when present Norwegian petroleum export is gradually phased out. The study is in line with EU initiatives to secure cooperation opportunities with neighbouring countries to establish an international hydrogen market. Three analytical perspectives are combined. The first uses energy models to investigate the role of hydrogen in an energy and power market perspective, without considering hydrogen export. The second, uses an economic equilibrium model to examine the potential role of hydrogen export in value creation. The third analysis is a socio-technical case study on the drivers and barriers for hydrogen production in Norway. Main conclusions are that access to renewable power and hydrogen are prerequisites for decarbonization of transport and industrial sectors in Norway, and that hydrogen is a key to maintain a high level of economic activity. Structural changes in the economy, impacts of new technologies, and key enablers and barriers in this transition are discussed.