Agricultural policy in the context of digitalization: an index and scenario approach

The article discusses the possibilities of using the integrated agricultural digitalization index as a tool for adjusting the agrarian policy of the Russian Federation. Based on the author's previous research and calculations of the index for 20192-2023, it is shown that agriculture is in the zone of partial controllability of digitalization – the infrastructural and resource-efficient components are significantly more developed than the institutional and managerial ones. This indicates a limited degree of integration of digital changes into the institutional circuit and management processes. A comparison of the index's structure with the goals and measures of agricultural policy made it possible to identify key problem areas and propose basic management, resource-efficient and institutional measures aimed at reducing imbalances between the components of digitalization and linking the index with government support for agriculture. Scenarios of changes in the digitalization subindexes up to 2035 and 2050 are based on the scenario approach. It is shown that the implementation of the proposed measures can help align the digitalization profile and bring the integral index into a range of values that allow us to talk about the systemic nature of digital changes in the industry under study. As a result, the work carried out confirms the expediency of including index assessment in the tools of agricultural sector management.