The Decline in Male Labor Force Participation

The rate of nonparticipation in market work among prime-aged males in the United States has risen persistently during the postwar period. The rate among males aged 45-54, for example, has risen from 4.2 percent to 8.4 percent from 1948 to 1976, with similar trends among other age groups. The principal hypothesis explored is that labor force withdrawal has been induced by the rapid expansion of welfare alternatives to work, principally the Social Security disability program. Cross-sectional evidence strongly confirms this hypothesis. Time-series projections of the cross-sectional model, moreover, track actual postwar trends in male labor force participation reasonably well.