Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land analyses

Various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future emissions were undertaken as part of the scientific assessment for Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculation: (i) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emission scenarios, (ii) inverse calculations determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilisation of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways and (iii) impulse response function calculations required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The use of a standardised set of conditions allows an intercomparison of models. Sensitivity studies explore other aspects of the uncertainties of such projections. This report documents the specifications, the models that were used and the results that were obtained. Some preliminary interpretations of the results are included.