Can long-term survival after a myocardial infarction be predicted from routine hospital data in patients under 67 years of age?
Routine hospital data, including age, prior working activity, previous cardiovascular disease, and inhospital complications, can reasonably predict long-term survival in patients discharged alive after an MI.
Among 528 patients under 67 years of age discharged alive after a myocardial infarction (MI), the cumulative survival rates after 3, 5, and 7 years were 84.1%, 75.9% and 68.6%, respectively. Compared with the "normal" population, the relative mortality risk was 4.8 for the first year, 3.1 for the second, and on average 2.1 for the next 5 years. Significant age differences were not observed for relative mortality. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed long-term mortality to be independently related to higher age, a reduced working activity before the MI, previous cardiovascular disease, and a higher inhospital complication score, which was computed by summing eight defined clinical events weighted for severity. The results indicate that a reasonable prediction of long-term survival after a MI can be made from routine hospital data.
Mæland et al. (Tue,) studied this question.