Which side are you on? Geoeconomic coercion and German corporate networks in the US–China rivalry

As the US-China rivalry intensifies, both states are mobilizing an array of tools - including tariffs, financial sanctions, export restrictions, and company blacklists - in a bid to strengthen their relative position within the global economy. These dynamics have generated profound challenges for Germany. Facing mounting pressure from both sides, its deep economic entanglements render it unable to align with either superpower or to effectively hedge between them. Moving beyond macro-level (aggregate trade data) and micro-level (case studies of individual corporations) analyses, this paper offers the first systematic meso-economic mapping of large-cap and mid-cap German industrial firms’ exposures to US and Chinese coercion. We show how the variegated internationalization of German firms produces sharply divergent corporate dependencies and risk profiles. Germany’s automotive and mechanical-engineering firms are most deeply enmeshed within China, while its digital-telecom firms have the strongest ties to the US. German semiconductor, chemical and pharmaceutical firms sit between these divergent orientations. The heterogeneity across and within the major clusters of German business militates against the emergence of a coherent and comprehensive national strategy for Germany. By advancing a meso-level account of economic coercion, our paper challenges prevalent assumptions of cohesive state interests that predominate in geoeconomic analysis.