The Five Eyes Allies and China: Assessing Threat Perceptions and Power Dynamics

Abstract China's expanding role in global affairs, along with its economic, military, and technological capabilities, have increased concerns about it being a potential threat to U.S. hegemony. Consequently, since 2017, threat perceptions have heightened, with China increasingly viewed as a strategic competitor and rival. While the"China threat theory"is widely analyzed, it is often approached from a U.S.-centric perspective, neglecting the viewpoints of other key actors. This study aims to address that gap by examining also the threat perceptions of four US allies—New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom—under the Five Eyes intelligence partnership. By analyzing their national security documents from 2008 to 2024, the study seeks to identify the presence, frequency, and sources of perceived threats. The findings indicate that although China as a threat is a multifaceted concern in issues such as identity, intentions, and geography, these countries primarily perceive China’s capabilities as the main source of threat. Finally, all states have elevated their threat perceptions of China, justifying decisions to counter its power in the Indo-Pacific as the main theatre of competition and to reinforce multilateral and bilateral alliances against Beijing.