Capitalizing on Nonrandom Assignment to Treatments: A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of a Crime-Control Program

Abstract Despite the enormous potential of regression-discontinuity, quasi-experimental procedures, they have to date rarely been used in the evaluation of large-scale social programs. In this article, we report an evaluation of such a program in which a regression-discontinuity analysis is employed. Through a change in legislation, the program in question extended eligibility for unemployment benefits to prisoners after their release from prison. The regression-discontinuity approach proved practical and effective; it revealed that the program cut recidivism rates by 13 percent.